Forecasts, Women, Fire, and Other Dangerous Things

He just got back from Shenzhen last night (where he claims all the action is these days), and although he’s badly jet-lagged, looking like he’s had a spoonful of Nembutal mixed in with his coffee, he’s all-business, being of course a very busy man, as not least his BlackBerry humming faster than the heartbeat of a hummingbird would indicate. In fact, nailing my thirty-minute “catch-up” meeting with this high-powered head of global supply-chain strategy for one of the largest and most admired IT firms was a lot harder than getting Tosca tickets at La Scala. (Although I always marvel at the inventiveness of that particular scheduling term, as this is but only our second meeting, and I’m hardly catching up with an ol’ college buddy here.)

I enter his office, and I might as well – judging from the computational horsepower on display – be stepping onto the trading floor of the Chicago Merc or into launch command at Cape Canaveral, were it not for the costly collection of Bonsai, carefully manicured and magnificently cared for (its continuous cultivation, he says, reminding him daily that the devil is in the details, that one’s job is never quite done, and that the locus of all the action is these days – where else? – in Asia.) Pleasantries and pastries are quickly consumed, and he gets straight into it by asking me a straight-forward question which I have my reasons to skirt (first mistake), and rather than answering instead I just tell the man not to worry (second mistake). These admittedly hollow words have barely passed my larynx, when he retorts in his trademark 140 Decibels “‘cause-you-evidently-didn’t-hear-me-the-first-time” wail (which happens to be the sound intensity of artillery fire and is clinically classified as “nearly deafening”): “What do you mean ‘don’t worry’? I always worry. Worrying is what I do for a living. If I’d stopped worrying, we’d all be screwed, our business partners included, such as yourselves!” Ouch!

This high-octane executive and Bonsai cultivator (no, timid and taciturn are not the words that leap out at you to describe his professional demeanor) does worry a lot. About where, for instance, a company the size of his – that, in a good year, would have to add the entire revenue line of a smaller Fortune 500 company just to meet its annual growth target – will find the most cost-effective and sustainable supply of both human and material resources to allow for future, profitable growth. By background, our man is 1/3 applied mathematics professor (in a former life, of course), 1/3 proud company-lifer and procurement careerist, and 1/3 street-fighter – a mixture that would normally appeal to me, were it not for the middle part, where I find myself invariably on the receiving end of this consummate procurer’s incessant worrying about how to squeeze ever more costs out of his global supply base (whereof our company is proudly a part). (As far as world-class professional worrywarts go, it must be said that our friend is leagues apart from the phlegmatic fretting of say a Woody Allen; but still, asking him to “lighten up” on his patented procurement anxiety that anything in this world that can be bought, ought to be bought for the cheapest price possible, would be like asking Frodo Baggins to shave his feet, dispense with that peculiar Hobbit habit of having second breakfast, or stop that premonitious whining about gloom and doom by some monoscopic flame-ball in the sky – in other words, unlikely to happen.)

And all I was asked to provide was a detailed forecast of all the hot IT skills in all the different geographic markets so that this one procurement strategist could better gear his formidable world-wide skills acquisition machinery for optimal world-class results. If I knew the full answer to that question I wouldn’t even tell my own mother, for this is real leverage, having a window of time to be able to build up a privileged on-demand skills pool in the hopefully correct anticipation that these skills will soon be hotly in-demand. The “don’t worry” comment was meant to imply that indeed our company Talent Trust (http://www.talenttrust.com/) does very much exactly that: the analytical forecasting and anticipatory sourcing across a very large number of IT skills, functions, and disciplines and across all applicable geographies. Since Talent Trust operates as both a demand- and supply aggregator, we have uniquely powerful insights into what technologies and related skills are on the rise or demise, if a “bleeding edge” programming language is turning “leading edge” overnight, or if a specific legacy skill-set is turning red-hot again for lack of available talent (e.g., try COBOL-with-PowerBuilder). And since we operate a “virtual bench” of trusted partners – all highly specialized, mid-market IT firms in various low-cost countries – we have significant operational advantage when it comes to very rapidly mobilizing these hot skills (e.g., Ruby on Rails, PHP 5, Flex), because we are not constrained by any single organization or geography. In fact, our network (which we call the “Talent Trust Alliance”) has the breadth, depth, and ready availability of IT talent no single supplier, no matter how large, can match. Think of it as a whole forest of Bonsai vs. the single giant oak tree. Yes, our friend does like that analogy, and now he gets my meaning that by virtue of partnering with us, our clients will automatically enjoy the benefits of tapping into our dynamic knowledge of the marketplace for skills, be it onshore, nearshore, or offshore. So don’t you worry, my friend, after all.

Although my foray into micro-journalism has been greeted by my corporate host with admirable support (and I’m no longer called a “mean dodgeball player” who doesn’t answer his client’s questions), I’m reminded that there is a special circle in hell reserved for NDA-violators, and so I shall refer my reader to a recent public-domain but nevertheless very useful ranking of hot IT skills in the market (this one courtesy of IT Business Edge and Dice.com):

  1. Informatica
  2. Virtualization
  3. ETL (Extract, Transform and Load)
  4. Python
  5. Service-Oriented Architecture
  6. Sybase
  7. WebLogic
  8. SOAP
  9. Data Warehouse
  10. SharePoint
  11. MySQL
  12. E-commerce
  13. JavaScript
  14. VMware
  15. CSS (Cascading Style Sheets)
  16. Business Analyst
  17. ITIL
  18. Ajax
  19. Perl
  20. Business Intelligence

(Finally, an editorial note before the Comment section swells up like an English complaint box: the title of this blog is barefacedly lifted from George Lakoff’s 1987 seminal work in cognitive linguistics called “Women, Fire, and Dangerous Things.” Its readers will ask themselves what the terms we use reveal about the way we go about doing the things that involve said terms. This happens to be an important insight for anybody trying to do proper forecasting and trending involving qualitative measures. A good read.)

Advertisements

Don’t Cry for Me, Argentina

“Don’t cry for me, Argentina
The truth is I never left you
All through my wild days
My mad existence
I kept my promise, don’t keep your distance”
– Eva Perón in Evita by Andrew Lloyd Webber and lyrics by Tim Rice

In everyday life there are many successful husband-and-wife teams; I’ve personally encountered such domestic-cum-corporate duos thriving for example as restaurateurs, travel agents, certified public accountants, florists, vinotecarians, pre-Netflix vidéothèquers, European-car mechanics albeit with limited repair capabilities, temporary employment agencies, bagel store owners, expensive dry cleaners, and my favorite pedicurists whose marriage though, I sense, is a bit on a rough footing. Despite federal and state-issued labor regulations that must be prominently displayed in all work areas, including the bedroom, specifically warning of such workplace hazards as “spousal arousal,” the kinship of business and pleasure has obvious advantage (viz. merit and merriment) as well as disadvantage (for richer or poorer but never for lunch, as my wife, for one, would freely assert). (The analytically-minded will note that there are four possible outcomes when matrimonial and monetary matters conspire or collide, as the case may be: business success or failure paired with marital bliss or whatever the opposite, I dare not ponder – just compare / contrast the pairings of Cleopatra and Marcus Antonius, Annie Oakley and Frank Butler, Bonnie Parker and Clyde Barrow, and Siegfried and Roy.)

Think about starting a technology firm with your spousal business partner? Doable indeed, as such notable Silicon Valley offspring as Cisco, Super Micro, VMware, Flickr, Bebo, and Six Apart prove. However, think about running a country together? Well, then you will have to keep up with the Kirchners. Meet Cristina and Néstor of Number One Quinta Presidencial de Olivos in Buenos Aires, Argentina. Néstor Kirchner, protean a politician, with his devil-may-care populism of near-Chávezian proportion, his on-again-off-again dislike for markets, and his fondness for decrees (having issued more than the Council of Trent), would have hated vacating the Presidential Villa at the end of his term (as anybody would), and was surely consoled by the seamless, subsequent installment of his wife, Cristina Fernández de Kirchner as President of Argentina. Cristina Kirchner, for her part, debacled into office with a creative multi-billion dollar debt retirement scheme that met the stark resistance of that marplot of her Central Bank President who opposed it and who was since decreed-over multiple times, Kirchner-style. With plummeting popularity ratings at home and the national press infuriated (and who cares about  international opinion?), she’s done well to focus on all-out capitalistic reforms (despite nationalizing the country’s private pension funds), taking it perhaps too far with a few dubious development deals of her own that would put even Donald Trump to shame (alongside a fashion decorum to make the Real Housewives of Orange County blush). Luckily for the Kirchners (and the country, of course), a vast amount of oil – estimated at some 60 billion barrels – has been discovered in Argentina’s inshore waters and is certain to now unleash another economic boom. With Argentina’s farm-commodity exports at an all-time high and inflation generally in check, the country under the Kirchners resembles a lush economical oasis in the financial isthmus of Latin America.

Our darling husband-and-wife team, credited with bringing Argentina back into the centerfold of world economic power through political stability, industrial growth, and rising prosperity is following in the footsteps, of course, of another ruling couple, Juan and Isabel Perón, whose style of government in the fifties known as Peronism, that farcical ideological wavering between socialism and capitalism, has for so long managed to hold back a country with just extraordinary potential (given immense natural resources, a highly developed economy and powerful middle class, strong historical ties to European culture, etc.). That Argentina is not yet a G10 or at least an economy the size of Italy’s ($558 billion GDP vs. $1.756 trillion) has famously perplexed V. S. Naipaul who calls it “one of the great mysteries of the twentieth century.” The hangover of Peronism perhaps? Yep, the Argies sure like their colorful husband-and-wife leaders, able as a country, however, to withstand and endure even a bad choice of leadership. Don’t cry for me, Argentina? (Here’s the answer to that one: towards the end of her mad existence, Eva Perón stipulated in her will that Liza Minnelli would be expressly barred from playing Evita, for the good people of Argentina had already suffered too much; she kept her promise; and the children of the Pampas never did shed a tear.)

Argentina is one of my favorite countries in the world. In his day job, your blogger has been working with Argentinean business partners for over ten years. With a demographically young and dynamic population of 40 million, a world-class educational system that’s produced more Nobel Prize winners in the sciences than all other South American countries put together, and a higher adult literacy rate than Greece, Argentina’s workforce can be reckoned with on an international scale. The country’s cultural roots are European and very much like the United States it is a nation formed by settlers and immigrants, affording both Europeans and Americans a great deal of cultural similarity and indeed familiarity. The vast majority of the contemporary workforce employed in science, engineering, and technology speaks English which is taught in school mandatorily as the primary foreign language. The people I’ve had the pleasure of working with over the years have not only excelled in their respective fields of specialization but have distinguished themselves as problem solvers, creative thinkers, and innovative contributors; I’ve witnessed entrepreneurship, hard work, and professional pride to degrees desirable for the even the best companies or institutions here in the States.

If you’re thinking about working with a remote IT team, one of Argentina’s most compelling advantages besides boasting a wealth of excellent technical talent at competitive offshore rates is the time zone overlap with both the U.S. and Europe. Just look at your world clock: 8:00 AM in Chicago, is 10:00 AM in Buenos Aires, is 1:00 PM in London, meaning that both Chicago and London will have their respective eight-hour day overlap with Buenos Aires in terms of regular business hours. In other words, Argentina is ideally situated to serve both the U.S. and Europe as “nearshore” destinations for real-time collaboration (think about just being able to Skype your remote colleague in say Buenos Aires in the middle of your day to catch up on a project’s status, as opposed to getting up at the crack of dawn or burning the midnight oil, getting caught up with resources sitting in say Bangalore, India).

It must also be said that you won’t like Argentina if: you are a member of the bovine family (yes, you will get eaten, as this is by a wide but gastroenterologically not-so-healthy margin the world’s biggest beef-eating nation); you are a Malbec grape (you’ll get squashed with Argentina now ranking as the fifth-leading producer of wine in the world); or you get dizzy dancing (Argentina, you’ve got the best dancers in the world – just bite me, Brazil!). Load up your iPod with Astor Piazzolla tangos to relive the magic of the Pampas or the romance of a sultry Buenos Aires evening from afar, and let me summarize why Argentina is possibly your best bet for a remote IT destination:

  • A politically stable nation with a fast-growing diversified economy, vast natural resources, strong at exporting and at the cusp of an energy-sector boom;
  • A large population, with a young demographic and a prevalent middle class;
  • A superb educational system that, with the government’s support, is fostering education and job training in science, engineering, and technology (where the U.S. educational system, in contrast, is desperately lacking);
  • Technical universities across the country produce a wealth of highly-skilled IT professionals;
  • A high penetration of advanced English as a foreign language, both spoken and written, especially among IT professionals;
  • An established and fast-growing IT services industry based on entrepreneurial spirit and technical excellence;
  • IT services exports are strongly encouraged by the government with various incentive programs to further propagate the benefits of a ‘knowledge economy’ (investing in people, non-polluting revenues, currency influx);
  • Cultural similarity with both Europe and North America greatly eases cross-cultural work collaboration;
  • High work ethic, pride in ownership, and innovative ‘out-of-the-box’ thinking are common characteristics;
  • Almost full-working-day time zone overlap with both the U.S. and Europe means you can work with people in Argentina in ‘real time’;
  • And perhaps, most significantly of all if you’re looking for “value for money”: given all the above benefits, Argentina outsourcing is still very much price-competitive compared to most other offshore locations, with savings that can range from 30-50% compared to the cost of domestic staff.