Predictions for the Future World of Work

Today, I bid you a “guten Tag” as your far-flung correspondent is leaving what a former profligate United States Secretary of Defense used to call the “Old Europe,” where I’ve been attending a gathering of ‘human capital’ management consultants. Listening to the consulting speak of such human capitalists for an evening on an Alpine lake, I felt reminded indeed of Rumsfeld’s more contemporary “re”-definition of NATO, offered up in one of his perpetual digs against the sclerotic and old-fashioned ‘new’ Ancien Régime as “No Action Talk Only.” Though lacking the requisite (and priceless) consulting vernacular (able however to explain why Germans don’t drink water, for in wine there’s wisdom, in beer there’s strength, whereas in water there’s bacteria), I was asked to prognosticate on some key trends impacting the labor markets.

Here is the formula I used to foretell what I believe will happen in the world of work:

  • “Trends / disruptive forces in the labor markets …” -> “… are forcing tectonic shifts from the old labor model …” -> “… to a new labor model …” -> “… and with new paradigms to explore / opportunities to exploit:”
  • Demographic (talent shortage) -> Employer-centric / traditional / social contract -> Employee-centric / non-traditional / social life -> Self-employment of “premium” talent / self-reliant career management;
  • Macro-economic (globalization / off-shoring) -> Work-worker proximity / “work is a place you go to” -> Labor mobility / job portability / “work is a thing you do” -> Movement of workers and / or jobs (“tech-nomadic”);
  • Micro-economic (variable cost structure / virtual supply chain) -> Captive employee bench / fixed cost / demanding of HR -> Virtual employee bench / variable cost / on-demand talent -> Syndication of employee bench risk / HR expertise to third party;
  • Environmental (metropolitan congestion) -> Commute from suburbs to mega-city centre for work / high carbon footprint -> Telework (work from home) / low carbon footprint -> Consideration of employee location (“home-shoring” / tier 2 cities);
  • Social (social networks / affinity groups) -> Closed networks / respect for high-minded -> Open networks / affinity with like-minded -> Formation of ad-hoc and persistent project teams (“adhocracy” / “tech tribes”);
  • Intellectual (collaborative innovation) -> Proprietary / coveted IP / internal collaboration / e.g., Procter & Gamble R & D (Research and Development) -> Open source / shared IP / external collaboration / e.g., Procter & Gamble C & D (Connect and Develop) -> IP creation occurs through non-traditional means (“unbounded” collaboration / “innovation commons”);
  • Technological (connectivity, services virtualization) -> Workplace / physical -> Workforce / virtual -> Segmentation / geographic distribution of work (asynchronous collaboration);

Auf Wiedersehen for now and until next week!

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